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Commentary & Analysis

The Commonwealth Of Weak States

CIS leaders will fall in step behind Russia.

September 02, 2008
By Kenan Aliyev

With the exception of Ukraine and, of course, the Baltic states, none of the republics of the former Soviet Union has vigorously protested Russia's recent aggression in Georgia and its subsequent recognition of the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Most remained mute; the Central Asian states, Kazakhstan in particular, even sought to justify Moscow's actions. That is because, from Moldova to Azerbaijan to Uzbekistan, these "independent" states are scared, and justifiably so. Their silence indicates that Russia is surrounded by weak states whose governments are the products of personal alliances, rigged elections, and political coercion, and therefore lack popular legitimacy.

When the time came for robust action, the leaders of most of these countries "chickened out."  It was unthinkable that Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov or Belarus's Alyaksandr Lukashenka, both dictators whose power has nothing to do with the will of the people,  would support the democratically elected government of Georgia.

What happened to GUAM, the regional security alliance uniting Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova? Today that organization has been reduced to GU, because neither Azerbaijan nor Moldova fulfilled its obligations to protect a fellow member state.  Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, despite his country's energy wealth and strategic geopolitical position, said nothing in support of Georgia. He spent the first week of the war in Beijing, and the rest of the time with his head in the proverbial sand, conducting "ostrich diplomacy." And what happened to Azerbaijan's "strategic partnership" with Georgia?  The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members have many reasons to fear Russia, but the biggest reason is that they are aware how vulnerable they would be should they take a political risk.

Regardless of whether or not they approved of President Mikheil Saakashvili's judgment on August 7-8 in precipitating the conflict with Russia, the Georgian people supported him, and continue to support him, because they participated in building Georgian democracy and believe they have a stake in the system. Looking beyond the immediate crisis, Georgians also understand that democracy guarantees them the possibility of changing their leadership should they wish to do so. Leaders who lack this popular legitimacy also lack the popular will to stand up to external aggression, since they don't have a "contract" or mutual obligations vis-a-vis the state. Power is not legally theirs: it was inherited, stolen, or bought.

And while in Georgia, independence was used to build a state with sovereign, representative institutions, independence in other countries in the region was squandered, exploited by ruling cliques to enrich themselves, while producing none of the human, institutional, or moral capital necessary to defend it.

The West came to Georgia's aid because Saakashvili was popularly elected and undertook to enact democratic reforms and take his country into NATO. By contrast, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and the Central Asian states, having failed to embrace reform, can't call upon the West for aid, neither can they look to their own citizens for support in the event of armed aggression.

The Russian military intervention in South Ossetia also showed that oil and gas don't guarantee these countries' security; on the contrary, they endanger them, because Russia wants to control all energy resources in its neighborhood and their export.

The West should send a message to the countries of the CIS that it will support those leaders who demonstrate their pro-Western orientation by enacting reforms and aspiring to membership in Western alliances.  Oil and gas don't give states a carte blanche. For Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbaev, this means that his country's chairmanship of the OSCE in 2010 must be exemplary; for Ilham Aliyev, this means that the West will expect fair and competitive presidential elections in October; for Armenia, this means satisfying benchmarks for good governance to qualify for further Millennium Challenge funds; for Moldova, it means meaningful economic reform.

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney's visit to the South Caucasus this week is good opportunity to send this message.

Kenan Aliyev is the director of RFE/RL's Azerbaijani Service. The views expressed in this commentary are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of RFE/RL
 
 
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Comments 1-6 (of 6)
by: Viola from: Minneapolis
September 04, 2008 18:03

All former Soviet republics without exception are weak. The only difference is whose influence they fall under -- Moscow's or Washington's (and in the case of many Asian nations -- Beijing's). Let's not delude ourselves with "free democratic" regime in Ukraine or Georgia. They're just satellites to a different superpower.


by: Kostyantyn from: USA
September 04, 2008 17:25

"eko" from US, I suppose you have a better understanding of the intricacies of post-Soviet geopolitics? Where are you published? Have you lived in the former Soviet bloc? I doubt it, otherwise you would not be posting such rubbish on this site. I ask the Russian apologists: Why is it that almost every country on Russia's western borders has practically begged to be integrated into western economic and security alliances? The spectre of Russian oppression and xenophobic chauvinism has not disappeared, and Russia continues to stand as a model of an autocratic, one-resource, banana republic propped up by a weak and backward-looking people. It is unfortunate that Russia, a country that has even surpassed Nazi Germany in mass executions and the spread of such misery, has not progressed.


by: eko from: US
September 03, 2008 19:18

"The West should send a message to the countries of the CIS that it will support those leaders who demonstrate their pro-Western orientation by enacting reforms and aspiring to membership in Western alliances."
- this article one more example of bias,uncalled agression and lack of open mind i have stumbled upon here. The author ,with all due respect , has very dim understanding of underlying intrests of the powers involved and the actual state of affairs. It is a shame that a person, who has such shallow knowledge and introspect is allowed to write articles on this well respected site.


by: Andrew from: Georgia
September 03, 2008 10:27

I agree with thsi article, and I wish to thank Emin from Azrebaijan. We here in Georgia truly appreciate the support of the Azerbaijani people. Putin and his Russia are a threat to us all.
To Alex from Russia, your President kills journalists, conducts genocidal military campaigns in the north Caucasus, crushes dissent, invades and partitions a much smaller nieghbor, presides over a KGB mafia style government, allows the kleptomaniac behaviour of the oligarchs to thrive, neuters the Russian justice system, assasinates political rivals and dissidents, creates Hitler Youth style movements such as Nashi, and threatens every neighboring country. You deserve better leadership too.


by: Emin from: Azerbaijan
September 02, 2008 19:27

No. More like its is sad that Russia has two tough-talking, tough-acting hawks in power that respect neither the dignity, nor the legitimacy of human rights and civil liberties in countries surrounding it's borders. It's an oligarchic regime hiding behind populist and nationalistic messages that further strengthens their grip on the already non-existing democracy in Russia. What is also sad is that Aliyev, indeed, did chicken by only limiting himself to verbal support for Georgia. Aliyev's position is not that of the people of Azerbaijan as the vast majority of Azerbaijanis are outraged at the immoral, illegal and aggressive actions of Russia!


by: Alex from: Irkutsk, Russia
September 02, 2008 17:32

It is sad that Georgia has such a reckless and immature leader as Saakasvilli. This country deserves better leadership.

Comments 1-6 (of 6)